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It's impossible to provide a perfectly accurate estimate of the amount of money
not paid out by Social Security and Medicare due to COVID-19 deaths. The data needed
for such precision is complex, constantly evolving, and not fully available publicly.
However, I can offer a rough estimate based on reasonable assumptions and publicly
available data.
Here's the breakdown of the challenges and assumptions:
• Data Gaps: Precise age distribution of COVID-19 deaths, pre-existing disability
status, average earnings history of the deceased, and specific Medicare utilization
patterns are not fully available. Public data sources provide estimates that may
be used.
• Complexity of Benefit Calculation: Social Security benefits are based on lifetime
earnings, age at retirement, and other factors. Disability benefits have different
formulas. Medicare costs vary widely depending on health conditions and service
utilization.
• Mortality Trends: COVID-19's impact on life expectancy and overall mortality
rates has been significant but is still being analyzed. Using pre-pandemic life
expectancy as the only metric is potentially flawed, because there has been an overall
drop in life expectancy.
• Dynamic Nature: Benefit amounts, cost of living adjustments (COLAs), and healthcare
costs change yearly.
Assumptions:
• Total COVID-19 Deaths: Roughly 1.1 million in the U.S. (as of late 2023).
• Average Age at Death: I will consider two scenarios:
o Scenario A (Conservative):
Average age at death is 75 years old
o Scenario B (Aggressive): Average age
at death is 70 years old.
• Life Expectancy: Pre-pandemic life expectancy in the US was around 79 years.
However, let's use 80 years, since that is what you requested.
• Social Security Benefit: Average Social Security retirement benefit is about
$1,900 per month in 2024 (this is a simplifying assumption, acknowledging variation).
The average disability benefit is around $1,500 per month.
• Disability Rate: Assume 10% of those who died were receiving Social Security
Disability Insurance (SSDI) benefits before death.
• Medicare Costs: Average Medicare spending per enrollee is roughly $14,000 per
year. This includes all parts (A, B, C, D).
• Unpaid Social Security Taxes: This is very difficult to estimate without individual
earnings data. We'll make a simplifying assumption that, on average, individuals
contributed 7.65% (employee share of Social Security and Medicare taxes) of $50,000
annually for 10 years prior to death. This is not perfect, but is included to show
how much may have been contributed but will not be paid out.
• No discounting: I will not discount future benefits to present value. This
would require assumptions about discount rates, which adds complexity.
Calculations: Scenario A (Avg Death at 75):
• Years of Lost Social Security Retirement Benefits: 80 - 75 = 5 years
• Number of Retirement-Age Deaths (90%): 1,100,000 * 0.90 = 990,000
• Total Lost Retirement Benefits: 990,000 * 5 years * 12 months/year * $1,900/month
= $113.22 Billion
• Number of Disability-Age Deaths (10%): 1,100,000 * 0.10 = 110,000
• Years of Lost Disability Benefits: Assume an average of 10 years of lost potential
benefits (this is very rough).
• Total Lost Disability Benefits: 110,000 * 10 years * 12 months/year * $1,500/month
= $19.8 Billion
• Total Lost Medicare Benefits: 1,100,000 * 5 years * $14,000/year = $77 Billion
• Unpaid Social Security Taxes: 1,100,000 * 10 years * ($50,000 * 0.0765) = $4.2075
Billion
• Total Lost Benefits (Scenario A): $113.22B + $19.8B + $77B + $4.2075B = $214.2275
Billion
Scenario B (Avg Death at 70):
• Years of Lost Social Security Retirement Benefits: 80 - 70 = 10 years
• Number of Retirement-Age Deaths (90%): 1,100,000 * 0.90 = 990,000
• Total Lost Retirement Benefits: 990,000 * 10 years * 12 months/year * $1,900/month
= $226.4 Billion
• Number of Disability-Age Deaths (10%): 1,100,000 * 0.10 = 110,000 • Years of
Lost Disability Benefits: Assume an average of 15 years of lost potential benefits
(this is very rough).
• Total Lost Disability Benefits: 110,000 * 15 years * 12 months/year * $1,500/month
= $29.7 Billion
• Total Lost Medicare Benefits: 1,100,000 * 10 years * $14,000/year = $154 Billion
• Unpaid Social Security Taxes: 1,100,000 * 10 years * ($50,000 * 0.0765) = $4.2075
Billion
• Total Lost Benefits (Scenario B): $226.4B + $29.7B + $154B + $4.2075B = $414.3075
Billion
Scenario C (Avg Death at 65):
Years of Lost Social Security Retirement Benefits: 80 - 65 = 15 years
Number of Retirement-Age Deaths (90%): 1,100,000 * 0.90 = 990,000
Total Lost Retirement Benefits: 990,000 * 15 years * 12 months/year * $1,900/month
= $338.58 Billion
Number of Disability-Age Deaths (10%): 1,100,000 * 0.10 = 110,000
Years of Lost Disability Benefits: Assume an average of 20 years of lost potential
benefits (this is very rough).
Total Lost Disability Benefits: 110,000 * 20 years * 12 months/year * $1,500/month
= $39.6 Billion
Total Lost Medicare Benefits: 1,100,000 * 15 years * $14,000/year = $231 Billion
Unpaid Social Security Taxes: 1,100,000 * 10 years * ($50,000 * 0.0765) = $4.2075
Billion
Total Lost Benefits (Scenario C): $338.58B + $39.6B + $231B + $4.2075B = $613.3875
Billion
Scenario D (Avg Death at 60):
Years of Lost Social Security Retirement Benefits: 80 - 60 = 20 years
Number of Retirement-Age Deaths (90%): 1,100,000 * 0.90 = 990,000
Total Lost Retirement Benefits: 990,000 * 20 years * 12 months/year * $1,900/month
= $450.36 Billion
Number of Disability-Age Deaths (10%): 1,100,000 * 0.10 = 110,000
Years of Lost Disability Benefits: Assume an average of 25 years of lost potential
benefits (this is very rough).
Total Lost Disability Benefits: 110,000 * 25 years * 12 months/year * $1,500/month
= $49.5 Billion
Total Lost Medicare Benefits: 1,100,000 * 20 years * $14,000/year = $308 Billion
Unpaid Social Security Taxes: 1,100,000 * 10 years * ($50,000 * 0.0765) = $4.2075
Billion
Total Lost Benefits (Scenario D): $450.36B + $49.5B + $308B + $4.2075B = $812.0675
Billion
Summary of Scenarios:
Scenario A (Avg Death at 75): $214.2275 Billion
Scenario B (Avg Death at 70): $414.3075 Billion
Scenario C (Avg Death at 65): $613.3875 Billion
Scenario D (Avg Death at 60): $812.0675 Billion
Final Conclusion:
The estimated range of Social Security and Medicare benefits that will not be
paid out due to COVID-19 deaths, based on these scenarios, is between $214 Billion
and $812 Billion.
Important Reminder:
These calculations are based on numerous simplifying assumptions and publicly
available data. The actual numbers could be significantly different. Factors like
pre-existing conditions, individual earnings histories, specific Medicare utilization,
and changes in benefit structures would all influence the final outcome. However,
this exercise illustrates the potential magnitude of the financial impact of the
pandemic on these vital social programs. A further detailed study would need to
be conducted with government access to data to better determine the final estimates.
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To estimate the amount of money that will not be paid out by Social Security
and Medicare to people who died of Covid during the pandemic, we need to consider
several factors including the age of the deceased, their expected lifespan, and
the average benefits they would have received. Let's break this down step by step.
Step 1: Determine the number of Covid deaths and their age distribution.
According to the CDC, as of early 2023, approximately 1.1 million people in the
U.S. have died from Covid-19. The age distribution of these deaths is as follows
(based on data from the CDC):
Under 25: 1%
25-44: 5%
45-64: 25%
65-74: 25%
75+: 44%
Step 2: Estimate the remaining lifespan for each age group.
Using life expectancy data from the National Center for Health Statistics:
Under 25: 55 years
25-44: 35 years
45-64: 20 years
65-74: 15 years
75+: 10 years
Step 3: Determine average Social Security and Medicare benefits.
Social Security:
Average monthly benefit for retired workers (2023): $1,827
Average monthly benefit for disabled workers (2023): $1,358 Medicare: Average
annual Medicare spending per beneficiary (2020): $12,900
Step 4: Calculate the total benefits not paid out.
Social Security: We'll calculate the total benefits not paid out for each age
group and then sum them up.
1. Under 25:
Number of deaths: 11,000 (1% of 1.1 million)
Remaining years: 55
Total
benefits per person: 55 * 12 * $1,827 = $1,205,820
Total for group: 11,000 *
$1,205,820 = $13.26 billion
2. 25-44:
Number of deaths: 55,000 (5% of 1.1 million)
Remaining years: 35
Total
benefits per person: 35 * 12 * $1,827 = $768,360
Total for group: 55,000 * $768,360
= $42.26 billion
3. 45-64:
Number of deaths: 275,000 (25% of 1.1 million)
Remaining years: 20
Total
benefits per person: 20 * 12 * $1,827 = $438,480
Total for group: 275,000 *
$438,480 = $120.58 billion
4. 65-74:
Number of deaths: 275,000 (25% of 1.1 million)
Remaining years: 15
Total
benefits per person: 15 * 12 * $1,827 = $328,860
Total for group: 275,000 *
$328,860 = $90.44 billion
5. 75+:
Number of deaths: 484,000 (44% of 1.1 million)
Remaining years: 10
Total
benefits per person: 10 * 12 * $1,827 = $219,240
Total for group: 484,000 *
$219,240 = $106.11 billion
Total Social Security benefits not paid out: $13.26 billion + $42.26 billion
+ $120.58 billion + $90.44 billion + $106.11 billion = $372.65 billion
Medicare:
Using the same age distribution and remaining years:
1. Under 25:
Number of deaths: 11,000
Remaining years: 55
Total benefits per person:
55 * $12,900 = $709,500
Total for group: 11,000 * $709,500 = $7.80 billion
2. 25-44:
Number of deaths: 55,000
Remaining years: 35
Total benefits per person:
35 * $12,900 = $451,500
Total for group: 55,000 * $451,500 = $24.83 billion
3. 45-64:
Number of deaths: 275,000
Remaining years: 20
Total benefits per person:
20 * $12,900 = $258,000
Total for group: 275,000 * $258,000 = $70.95 billion
4. 65-74:
Number of deaths: 275,000
Remaining years: 15
Total benefits per person:
15 * $12,900 = $193,500
Total for group: 275,000 * $193,500 = $53.21 billion
5. 75+:
Number of deaths: 484,000
Remaining years: 10
Total benefits per person:
10 * $12,900 = $129,000
Total for group: 484,000 * $129,000 = $62.44 billion
Total Medicare benefits not paid out: $7.80 billion + $24.83 billion + $70.95
billion + $53.21 billion + $62.44 billion = $219.23 billion
Step 5: Estimate Social Security contributions from those who died of Covid.
To estimate the total amount of Social Security money collected from those who
died of Covid, we need to consider the average annual contributions. The average
annual Social Security tax contribution per worker in 2023 is approximately $5,000.
Using the same age distribution:
1. Under 25:
Number of deaths: 11,000
Average working years: 40 (assuming they start working
at 25)
Total contributions per person: 40 * $5,000 = $200,000
Total for
group: 11,000 * $200,000 = $2.20 billion
2. 25-44:
Number of deaths: 55,000
Average working years: 35
Total contributions
per person: 35 * $5,000 = $175,000
Total for group: 55,000 * $175,000 = $9.63
billion
3. 45-64:
Number of deaths: 275,000
Average working years: 20
Total contributions
per person: 20 * $5,000 = $100,000
Total for group: 275,000 * $100,000 = $27.50
billion
4. 65-74:
Number of deaths: 275,000
Average working years: 0 (assuming they are retired)
Total contributions per person: 0 * $5,000 = $0
Total for group: 275,000
* $0 = $0
5. 75+:
Number of deaths: 484,000
Average working years: 0 (assuming they are retired)
Total contributions per person: 0 * $5,000 = $0
Total for group: 484,000
* $0 = $0
Total Social Security contributions from those who died of Covid: $2.20 billion
+ $9.63 billion + $27.50 billion + $0 + $0 = $39.33 billion.
Summary
Total Social Security benefits not paid out: $372.65 billion
Total Medicare benefits not paid out: $219.23 billion
Total Social Security contributions from those who died of Covid: $39.33 billion
These estimates provide a broad overview and should be considered as rough approximations
due to the variability in individual circumstances and the use of average values.
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<Thinking> Okay, so I need to estimate the total amount of money that Social
Security and Medicare will not pay out to people who died from Covid during the
pandemic. The user wants me to use typical lifespans of those who died to project
the unpaid amounts. Also, include Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) where
applicable and estimate the total Social Security taxes collected from the deceased
that won't be paid out as benefits. Let's break this down step by step.
First, I need the number of Covid deaths in the US. The user mentioned in the
previous conversation about 1.1 million deaths as of 2023. I'll use that number
unless there's a more recent update, but I'll proceed with 1.1 million. Next, the
age distribution of these deaths. The majority of Covid deaths were among those
65 and older, but a significant portion were younger. Let me recall that around
75% were 65+ and 25% under 65. I'll use that split: 825,000 deaths in the 65+ group
and 275,000 in the under-65 group.
For each age group, I need to calculate the remaining life expectancy at the
time of death to determine how many years of benefits they would have received.
For the 65+ group, the average age at death is around 78 years. The remaining life
expectancy for a 78-year-old is about 10 years (using SSA period life tables). For
the under-65 group, let's assume the average age at death is 55. Their remaining
life expectancy from 55 would be about 27 years, but since benefits start at 65,
they would have received benefits for 82 (55 + 27) - 65 = 17 years.
Now, Social Security benefits: The average monthly benefit for retirees is about
$1,800 (as of 2023). For disabled workers (SSDI), the average is around $1,400 per
month. However, not all under-65 deaths were receiving SSDI. Let's say 20% of the
under-65 group were on SSDI. So, 20% of 275,000 = 55,000 people. The rest (220,000)
would have transitioned to retirement benefits at 65.
Medicare: Most people 65+ are enrolled in Medicare. For those under 65, Medicare
eligibility comes through disability (after 24 months of SSDI). So, the 55,000 SSDI
recipients would be on Medicare. The average annual Medicare spending per enrollee
is about $13,000.
Social Security taxes paid by the deceased: This requires estimating the total
payroll taxes (FICA) paid by these individuals during their working years. The current
Social Security tax rate is 6.2% for employees and employers each, up to the taxable
maximum ($160,200 in 2023). To estimate this, I need average lifetime earnings for
the deceased. This is complex, but for simplification, assume the average deceased
person paid $200,000 in total Social Security taxes (employee + employer share).
However, this is a rough estimate and might vary widely.
Putting it all together:
Social Security Retirement Benefits Not Paid: 825,000 (65+) * 10 years * $1,800/month
* 12 = $178.2 billion 220,000 (under-65 future retirees) * 17 years * $1,800/month
* 12 = $807.84 billion Total retirement benefits not paid: $178.2B + $807.84B =
$986.04B
SSDI Benefits Not Paid: 55,000 (SSDI recipients) * remaining life expectancy
(from age 55, 27 years) * $1,400/month * 12 = $55,000 * 27 * $16,800 = $24.9B
Medicare Savings: 825,000 (65+) * 10 years * $13,000 = $107.25B 55,000 (SSDI/Medicare)
* 27 years * $13,000 = $19.305B Total Medicare savings: $107.25B + $19.305B = $126.555B
Total Unpaid Benefits: Social Security (retirement + SSDI) = $986.04B + $24.9B
= $1,010.94B Medicare = $126.555B Combined total = $1,137.5 billion (~$1.14 trillion)
Social Security Taxes Collected but Unpaid: 1.1 million deceased * $200,000 (estimated
total contributions) = $220 billion
However, these numbers are highly sensitive to assumptions like average benefits,
life expectancy, the proportion on SSDI, and taxes paid. Adjusting any of these
could significantly change the result. For example, if the average Social Security
tax paid was lower, say $150,000, the total would be $165 billion. Also, the calculation
doesn't account for inflation or future benefit increases, which would raise the
unpaid amounts.
Finalizing the numbers with the stated assumptions, the total unpaid benefits
would be approximately $1.14 trillion, and the Social Security taxes collected but
not paid out would be around $220 billion. </Thinking>
Here’s a detailed estimate of unpaid Social Security/Medicare benefits and retained
payroll taxes from Americans who died of Covid, using 1.1 million deaths and 2023
program data:
1. Social Security Benefits Not Paid
Assumptions: 75% of deaths (825,000) were 65+ (average age at death: 78; remaining
life expectancy: 10 years). 25% of deaths (275,000) were under 65 (average age at
death: 55; remaining life expectancy after 65: 17 years). 20% of under-65 deaths
(55,000) were on SSDI (disability benefits).
Group Monthly Benefit Years Unpaid Total Unpaid Benefits
65+ Retirees: $1,800 10 825,000 × $1,800 × 12 × 10 = $178.2B
Under-65 Retirees: (benefits starting at 65) $1,800 17 220,000 × $1,800 × 12
× 17 = $807.8B
SSDI Recipients: $1,400 27 (full post-55 lifespan) 55,000 × $1,400 × 12 × 27
= $24.9B
Total Social Security Savings: $1.01 Trillion
2. Medicare Savings
Assumptions:
65+ group: Avg. annual cost = $13,000. Under-65
SSDI/Medicare: Avg. annual cost = $13,000 (after 24-month waiting period). Group
Years Unpaid
Total Medicare Savings
65+ Recipients: 10 825,000 × $13,000 × 10 = $107.3B SSDI/Medicare: 25 (27-year
lifespan – 2-year wait) 55,000 × $13,000 × 25 = $17.9B
Total Medicare Savings: $125.2B
3. Social Security Taxes Collected (and Not Paid Out)
Assumptions:
Workers pay 6.2% payroll tax (employers match, but only the employee portion
is "theirs").
Avg. lifetime Social Security taxes paid by deceased: $150,000 (employee + employer
share).
Calculation
Total 1.1M deaths × $150,000 = $165B
Totals
Category Amount
Social Security Unpaid $1.01 Trillion
Medicare Unpaid $125.2 Billion
Total Program Savings $1.14 Trillion
Social Security Taxes Retained: $165 Billion
Key Caveats
1. Life Expectancy: Used SSA period life tables (no future mortality improvements).
2. Benefits: Assumes no inflation or COLAs; actual unpaid amounts would grow
over time.
3. SSDI: Only 20% of under-65 deaths assumed on disability; true % may vary.
4. Taxes: Lifetime contributions are speculative (based on median earners).
Why This Matters While $1.14T in savings seems vast, it’s spread over decades
and pales against Covid’s economic toll ($16T in estimated U.S. economic loss).
The $165B in retained taxes is a fraction of annual Social Security outflows ($1.2T/year).
These figures underscore Covid’s human tragedy, not fiscal gain. Let me know if
you’d like to test alternate assumptions!
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