These original Kirt's Cogitations™ may be reproduced
(no more than 5, please) provided proper credit is given to me, Kirt Blattenberger.
here to return to the Table of Contents.
Cog·i·ta·tion [koj-i-tey'-shun] – noun: Concerted
reflection; meditation; contemplation.
Kirt [kert] – proper noun: RF Cafe webmaster.
Cray = Guess
A computer model has been devised that improves the ability to
forecast whether contrails will be formed behind high altitude jet aircraft. Such a capability would be useful
for, among other things, predicting whether strategic military aircraft would likely be visible by eye to enemy
forces. Radar and IR stealth doesn't do much good for bombers if their presence is betrayed by contrails. The new
model boasts accurately foretelling contrails (but not their duration) on 223 out of 243 aircraft in the study.
That means 92% of the time one can expect contrails. Sounds great, but as "Science News" reader John Gilbert
points out, "I propose the simplest model: Always predict a contrail. You'll be right 92% of the time."