Here are 2 articles that may help analyze the problem and provides some insight
why peoples' intuition get this wrong and why the better choice is to switch choice,
if you get the first choice wrong.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problemhttp://saliu.com/monty-paradox.html
Enjoy the reading. If Game Theory interests you, I just finished an excellant read in
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's "The Predictioneer's Game". It is a facinating read on Game
Theory and how "predictions" can be made of people choices as Bruce book states
"Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future." They had a
show on Bruce's work 2 years ago on TV. The US Govenrment State Depatrment and
CIA has rated Bruce's prediction of world political and other events at better than 90%.
This is increadible statistics on future predictioneering.