Here are 2 articles that may help analyze the
problem and provides some insight
peoples' intuition get this wrong and why the
better choice is to switch choice,
if you get
the first choice wrong.
Enjoy the reading. If Game Theory interests you,
I just finished an excellant read in
Bueno de Mesquita's "The Predictioneer's Game".
It is a facinating read on Game
how "predictions" can be made of people choices
as Bruce book states
"Using the Logic of
Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the
Future." They had a
show on Bruce's work 2
years ago on TV. The US Govenrment State
CIA has rated Bruce's
prediction of world political and other events
at better than 90%.
This is increadible
statistics on future predictioneering.